CANADA ELECTION ANALYSIS 2008

Canada Votes 2008

Lifeline Communications will provide ongoing analysis of campaign media coverage during Election 2008.

Our media analysis will feature our NewsInfluence Index, which offers an indicator of the tone, volume and prominence of campaign coverage in major national news media.

Resources

Media Links

n NDP

n CTV

n CBC

n Global / Canwest

n Globe and Mail

n Toronto Star

NewsInfluence Index - Oct. 3-4/08

NewsInfluence Index

Lifeline Communications calculates our NewsInfluence index, based on the number, prominence and tone of media items. The formula offsets negative, neutral, and positive media coverage, and assigns greater weight to prominent media items such as front page articles and higher ranking in television newscasts. The NewsInfluence index provides an indicator of the volume and tone of campaign coverage received by political parties in national news media.

The NewsInfluence Index covers major campaign items published in the Victoria Times Colonist, Vancouver Sun, Edmonton Journal, Calgary Herald, Regina Leader-Post, Saskatchewan StarPhoenix, Winnipeg Free Press, Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, National Post, Ottawa Citizen, and Montreal Gazette. The index also covers major campaign news items in television newscasts by CBC, CTV and Global National.

Oct. 4/08

Election Coverage Frames Ballot Question Around a Conservative Majority

Liberal +40
NewsInfluence Index

· The Liberal campaign benefited from prominent television coverage for Leader Stephane Dion in Montreal, highlighting his warnings about how the Conservative government will manage troubles in the economy.

· Prominent Liberal campaigners generated several positive print articles apart from coverage for the leader’s tour.

· In Calgary, former prime minister Paul Martin attacked the Conservative government on the economy. MP Bob Rae called on voters to turn away from the NDP and support the Liberals to block a Conservative victory.

Conservative +37.5
NewsInfluence Index

· Positive television coverage and front page articles from the Toronto Star and Regina Leader-Post positioned Leader Stephen Harper as taking a comfortable lead in voter support into the final stage of the election campaign.

· In negative tones, a widely published Canwest News article emphasized poll results showing the Conservatives losing ground in Quebec to the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberals, putting a majority government in jeopardy.

· Harper delivered a media message that his government will stick to stable economic policies, unlike the U.S.

NDP +20
NewsInfluence Index

· Television news reports played the NDP campaign behind coverage for the Conservatives and Liberals, but delivered a positive message that Leader Jack Layton was on track to make gains in the election.

· Layton urged voters in Montreal to rally around the NDP, and promised in the Arctic to step up sovereignty patrols and surveillance in the North.

BQ +14
NewsInfluence Index

· Leader Gilles Duceppe received national media attention for an economic speech in Toronto. Positive news reports also featured poll results showing the Bloc Quebecois gaining ground against the Conservatives in Quebec.

Green Party +5
NewsInfluence Index

· National news reports briefly highlighted a positive debate performance by Leader Elizabeth May, the launch of the party’s first television advertising, and examined whether supporters would make strategic shifts to Liberal candidates on voting day.

Featuring party leaders heading into the final stretch of the campaign, news reports framed the ballot question around whether Conservative Leader Stephen Harper can ride a lead in voter support into a majority victory. Several print articles suggested his party was losing ground in Quebec, putting a majority in jeopardy. Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe received national media attention for an economic speech in Toronto.