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Text Box: ELECTION ANALYSIS 2008

 

Canada Votes 2008

 

Lifeline Communications will provide ongoing analysis of campaign media coverage during Election 2008.

 

Our media analysis will feature our NewsInfluence Index, which offers an indicator of the tone, volume and prominence of campaign coverage in major national news media.

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NewsInfluence Index - Oct. 12-13/08

NewsInfluence Index

Lifeline Communications calculates our NewsInfluence index, based on the number, prominence and tone of media items. The formula offsets negative, neutral, and positive media coverage, and assigns greater weight to prominent media items such as front page articles and higher ranking in television newscasts. The NewsInfluence index provides an indicator of the volume and tone of campaign coverage received by political parties in national news media.

 

The NewsInfluence Index covers major campaign items published in the Victoria Times Colonist, Vancouver Sun, Edmonton Journal, Calgary Herald, Regina Leader-Post, Saskatchewan StarPhoenix, Winnipeg Free Press, Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, National Post, Ottawa Citizen, and Montreal Gazette. The index also covers major campaign news items in television newscasts by CBC, CTV and Global National.

 

© Lifeline Communications Group Inc. 2005 - 2008

Oct. 13/08

 

Last Day on the Trail:

Headlines See Tory Minority Win

Liberal +23
NewsInfluence Index

· Extensive election coverage featured a last push by Leader Stephane Dion to avoid election defeat by appealing to Green Party and NDP voters to block a Conservative government.

· Dion delivered prominent messages in television and print news reports, calling Conservative Leader Stephen Harper a liar for misrepresenting the Liberal plan on the environment, and a quitter for saying he would step down as leader if his Conservative government loses the election.

· Dion declared he would stay on as Liberal leader, even if his party was defeated in the election.

Bloc Quebecois +21
NewsInfluence Index

· The Bloc Quebecois received prominent national media attention, thanks to a confrontation between Leader Gilles Duceppe and a Conservative candidate in Quebec City.

· News reports emphasized the Bloc is poised to take several seats away from the Conservative government, as voter support suffered from unpopular budget cuts to arts and culture and campaign promises on youth crime.

NDP +16.5
NewsInfluence Index

· Overshadowed by the Conservatives and Liberals in election coverage, Leader Jack Layton still received positive media attention for his second job loss bus tour in Southern Ontario.

· Layton emphasized the severe impact of the economic downturn on manufacturing industries, and growing voter worry over the world financial crisis.

Green Party +9
NewsInfluence Index

· Several media items examined the issue of strategic voting, and whether Green Party supporters could move to the Liberal Party to defeat Conservative government candidates in some closely contested ridings.

Conservative -4
NewsInfluence Index

· The last day of election coverage was very mixed for the Conservative Party.

· News reports emphasized comments by Prime Minister Stephen Harper that the election could go either way, producing a Conservative or Liberal minority government.

· In negative tones, several media items explained the Conservative campaign made costly strategic mistakes in Quebec, and was expected to lose some key ridings.

· In balanced tones, news reports suggested the most likely election outcome was a Conservative minority government, as the party clung to a narrow lead in voter support.

 

Describing a stumbling finish and campaign failures, news reports raised expectations the Conservative Party would cling to a minority government in the federal election. Media coverage emphasized the election outcome would be close, with more than a third of voters still unsure about their choice and a Liberal minority as a possible surprise result. News reports pointed out both the Conservatives and the Liberals were well below their levels of support in the last election.