CANADA ELECTION ANALYSIS 2008

Canada Votes 2008

Lifeline Communications will provide ongoing analysis of campaign media coverage during Election 2008.

Our media analysis will feature our NewsInfluence Index, which offers an indicator of the tone, volume and prominence of campaign coverage in major national news media.

Resources

Media Links

n NDP

n CTV

n CBC

n Global / Canwest

n Globe and Mail

n Toronto Star

NewsInfluence Index - Oct. 10-11/08

NewsInfluence Index

Lifeline Communications calculates our NewsInfluence index, based on the number, prominence and tone of media items. The formula offsets negative, neutral, and positive media coverage, and assigns greater weight to prominent media items such as front page articles and higher ranking in television newscasts. The NewsInfluence index provides an indicator of the volume and tone of campaign coverage received by political parties in national news media.

The NewsInfluence Index covers major campaign items published in the Victoria Times Colonist, Vancouver Sun, Edmonton Journal, Calgary Herald, Regina Leader-Post, Saskatchewan StarPhoenix, Winnipeg Free Press, Globe and Mail, Toronto Star, National Post, Ottawa Citizen, and Montreal Gazette. The index also covers major campaign news items in television newscasts by CBC, CTV and Global National.

Oct. 11/08

Mixed Coverage Sees Election Outcome Up For Grabs

Liberal +45.5
NewsInfluence Index

· In balanced tones, news reports pointed out Leader Stephane Dion’s bungled television interview in Atlantic Canada remained an issue on the campaign trail. Media coverage noted the latest poll results show the Liberal party gaining ground, but still lagging behind the Conservative Party.

· Dion benefited from a feature interview on Global National, and several positive media items featured a late campaign appearance by former Liberal prime minister Jean Chretien.

Conservative +40.5
NewsInfluence Index

· Election coverage for the Conservative Party rebounded after a day of very negative headlines, as balanced news reports featured government action on a credit plan to bolster business and consumer lending by major banks.

· In positive tones, several news reports observed the Conservatives are leading in voter support in key regions of the country, including British Columbia, Ontario and Saskatchewan. Leader Stephen Harper delivered a campaign message warning voters against confusing and uncertain Liberal economic policies.

· Positive coverage was offset by negative news reports about sagging support in Quebec, the government’s downward trend in polls at the end of the campaign, a campaign official who quit the party in British Columbia.

NDP +27
NewsInfluence Index

· Television and print news reports featured Leader Jack Layton attacking the Conservative government’s failure to take timely action on the world financial crisis, and a call for Quebec voters to move past the Liberals and support the NDP.

· News reports also featured a campaign appearance by former leader Ed Broadbent, who challenged the Liberal record on the economy.

Bloc Quebecois +11
NewsInfluence Index

· Leader Gilles Duceppe delivered a message in national news media that Quebec voters need an effective voice in Parliament to protect their interests against a Conservative or Liberal government.

Green Party +3
NewsInfluence Index

· A CBC News item highlighted Leader Elizabeth May’s last push to challenge Defence Minister Peter MacKay in a Nova Scotia riding.

Assessing the election campaign on its final weekend, news reports observe Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper failed to react quickly to the world financial crisis, putting the outcome on voting day in doubt. Pollsters commented that the Conservative Party was clinging to enough voter support for a minority government, but warned their surveys have not fully captured voter fear and worry over the economy, and they are not confident in their predictions.